When the Data Point to Price but the Answer is still Enforcement.
October 28, 2026 by substack.com
When the Data Point to Price but the Answer is still Enforcement.
Illicit tobacco use has risen sharply among two disadvantaged populations in Australia, with a new study identifying price as the main motivation. Illegal cigarettes were reportedly selling for a fraction of the legal retail price, creating strong financial incentives to purchase outside regulated channels.
Despite these findings, the proposed policy response continues to emphasise enforcement and supply restrictions. The analysis raises questions about the limits of high tobacco taxation, particularly among financially vulnerable smokers.
Reducing smoking-related harm requires addressing affordability, consumer behaviour and access to effective cessation support, including lower-risk nicotine alternatives, rather than relying on enforcement alone.
8.20% of the adult population are current smokers. There are approximately 1.8 million current smokers in Australia 9.50% of men are current smokers but only 6.90% of women.
SOURCE: GSTHR
