The illicit tobacco market: a reply to ASH
March 30, 2026 by iea.org.uk
The illicit tobacco market: a reply to ASH
A growing debate is emerging over the true scale of the illicit tobacco market in the United Kingdom and how it should be measured. Critics argue that official estimates significantly underestimate the size of the black market, pointing to inconsistencies between declining legal sales and relatively stable smoking rates. Analysis suggests that sharp increases in tobacco taxes may be pushing more consumers toward illegal or untaxed products, particularly in recent years. The pandemic period is highlighted as a key moment when restrictions temporarily reduced access to illicit supply, leading to a short-term rise in legal sales. As normal conditions returned, legal sales dropped again, reinforcing arguments that the illicit market has been expanding rather than stabilizing. The discussion ultimately challenges the reliability of existing data and calls for a reassessment of how governments monitor and respond to illicit tobacco trade.
11.80% of the adult population are current smokers. There are approximately 6.7 million current smokers in United Kingdom 13.60% of men are current smokers but only 10.10% of women.
SOURCE: GSTHR
