In December 2021, the New Zealand Ministry of Health published a new tobacco control programme with the goal of reducing smoking prevalence to less than 5% by 2025. The prevalence of current smoking in New Zealand is 10.9%, and the rate of fall suggests that this is a realistic aim. However, the plan goes much further: it seeks, by 2025 to reach 5% or less in all New Zealand population groups. Among the Māori population, for example, this means reducing the proportion who smoke from one in four to one in 20 in just four years. This is an ambitious programme. Will it work?